Wednesday, 9 December 2009
Week 9: Drop in session
No class this week, it’s a drop in session for student who would like to meet up with their group members and discuss their presentation. Also if they would like to see David to discuss anything in relation to the presentation in week 10 and 11, we also met up with other group members and discuss our presentation and what each other going to get done.
Week 8: Review Session
Assignment completed and posted on wiki, this week was also a review week reflected on topics that we already completed over the past five week. We talked about what we understood and what we have learnt in previous weeks and to be completed in the coming weeks. These lectures have being very interesting, and I have learnt the importance of conformity when working in groups. I found it very interested working in a group doing this assignment on wiki page this method of learning is new and interesting, it also make it easier to work bit by bit rather than large volume of information and it also make it available to other group members. It also give each other the opportunity to communicate to each other via the wiki page rather than on the phone and keep track of what each other is doing and the progress that has being made.
week 7: No formal Class
We didn’t have any class this week due to Dr David Hardman away in Boston attending a conference of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. Our assignments were also due on this day so the group met, and put a plan in place to make sure the work was done to a high standard. However, to our surprised Dr. David announced that he was extending the deadline to week eight, due to other student encountering problems with wiki. That was good news for the group; we could relax and get things done. Our group assignment now due on the 27th of November after we given and extensions on the course work, topic that we have chosen were the Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Offs Prospect Theory: An analysis of Decision under risk.
week 6: Neoclassical theory
This week reading focused on the endowment effect, the paper title: Neoclassical THEORY VERSUS PROSPECT THEORY: EVIDENCE FROM THE MARKETPLACE, BY JOHN A LIST.
My understanding of the reading suggests behaviour does change as market experience is accumulating. There have been several experimental studies that suggested people tend to make decisions based on a higher value to things that they earned. In this paper several experiment has being carried out to explore whether the preference between two goods are independent of the consumer entitlement typical reports endowment effects for everyday consumable goods. The first experiment was carried out using mugs and candy bars; subjects were asked to choose between the two. List (2003) used unique pieces of memorabilia which participants were unfamiliar with; finding showed that traders tend to turned to familiars object.
At first I didn’t understand fully what the paper was saying, however after reading, chapter eight on the section endowment effect and the discussions in the class I understood it much better. This study provided insight into the endowment effect for example: The value of goods increases when it becomes a part of a person’s endowment. The person demands more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. According to Kalmeman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1990) Run studies to determine whether the Endowment effect survives when subjects face market disciplines and have a chance to learn. One of the first Studies: was carried out using undergraduate economics class, participated in a series of markets, alternating students given Cornell coffee mugs valued at $6.00.
This study shows that people tend to put a higher price on personalised possession that they treasure more than things they just want to get rid of. Personally I find myself closely attach to gifts given by friends and family which are personal to me, these I find difficult to put a price on. Moreover, I would have no problem putting a price on something’s that I have personally bought myself and want to get rid, in order to earn some money especially if it is something not wanted. Reading this paper has increased my understand of the effect of endowment in different ways. Understanding of prospect theory, people tend to make decisions only if they are being benefitted from the decision at hand. Personally I would agreed with endowment effect, which suggested that people tend to overprice item when they trying to sell something in order to make a profit exceeding the value of the goods.
My understanding of the reading suggests behaviour does change as market experience is accumulating. There have been several experimental studies that suggested people tend to make decisions based on a higher value to things that they earned. In this paper several experiment has being carried out to explore whether the preference between two goods are independent of the consumer entitlement typical reports endowment effects for everyday consumable goods. The first experiment was carried out using mugs and candy bars; subjects were asked to choose between the two. List (2003) used unique pieces of memorabilia which participants were unfamiliar with; finding showed that traders tend to turned to familiars object.
At first I didn’t understand fully what the paper was saying, however after reading, chapter eight on the section endowment effect and the discussions in the class I understood it much better. This study provided insight into the endowment effect for example: The value of goods increases when it becomes a part of a person’s endowment. The person demands more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. According to Kalmeman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1990) Run studies to determine whether the Endowment effect survives when subjects face market disciplines and have a chance to learn. One of the first Studies: was carried out using undergraduate economics class, participated in a series of markets, alternating students given Cornell coffee mugs valued at $6.00.
This study shows that people tend to put a higher price on personalised possession that they treasure more than things they just want to get rid of. Personally I find myself closely attach to gifts given by friends and family which are personal to me, these I find difficult to put a price on. Moreover, I would have no problem putting a price on something’s that I have personally bought myself and want to get rid, in order to earn some money especially if it is something not wanted. Reading this paper has increased my understand of the effect of endowment in different ways. Understanding of prospect theory, people tend to make decisions only if they are being benefitted from the decision at hand. Personally I would agreed with endowment effect, which suggested that people tend to overprice item when they trying to sell something in order to make a profit exceeding the value of the goods.
Monday, 23 November 2009
Friday, 6 November 2009
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Reflection writing on decision making
The first lecture was interesting; I’m looking forward to what the next one has to offer. I thought it was going to be boring but after finishing I got the impression I am going to enjoy this module. Once this module is completed I will have broaden my knowledge of this topic and aspects of life I have not thought about.
Personally, when I make a judgment on a section I have to be very comfortable with whatever I’m doing before making those decisions of the uncertainty.
We were allocated to groups where we will be working together each week doing presentations and discussing set topics each week; which I am anticipating where each other different ideas can be share.
Weak 3
I am very indecisive and takes a lot of effort in making positive judgement due to the time it takes to generate good reasons, therefore this module will help me with my decisions and judgments from a psychological perspective.Since reading Judgment and Decision Taking by David Hardman, I have felt clearer and understand the information. This book was easy to understand getting to the point directly and concise. The first paper read for this module was Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way, this paper was a bit confusing at first. However during our discussion Dr. David Hardman explained the literature to the group and it became clearer. It was a very interesting piece for me because it states that human and animals makes inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge’s. This task was based on choices which must be made between two alternatives on a quantitative dimension. An example, when exiting the motorway or staying on it, who to treat first in an emergency room the 80 year old with an heart attack or the 16 years old who was in a car accident. Inference, concerning population demography such as city population of the past, present and future; Fast and Frugal was written in early day’s judgment based on pros and cons.
Herbert Simon judgement is based on one aspect, logical and probability for example train in inner city, ideas is sequentially searched, judgement is based on knowledge of surrounding. I have also the basic of the testing take the best algorithm which test how well individuals, who the take the best algorithm did at answering real world questions. Such as which city has more inhabitants (a) Heidelberg if (b) Bonn?, Each of the 500 simulated individuals in each of the 5x84 types was tested on exhaustive set of 3,403 city pairs. I think this paper is very interested when the concept is understood, although I had to read the article more than once. It was also useful because the pair described different models that can be used to explain how limited knowledge make fast inferences different from mental model of syllogism and deductive inference (Johnson-Laird 1983) focusing on the logical task of truth preservation and where knowledge is irrelevant.
Reading for week 4:
Decision making under Risk and uncertainty, the first reading was from David’s book. I read Decision analysis for management judgment by P. Goodwin and G. Wright. This topic has given an important definition in taking risk by the different theories and tough because it uses calculation to aid decision making. I’m not a fan of mathematics I find it challenging when doing calculations when it is vital to understand the model. However this area is a very interested one related to the real world. Personally I’m not a risk taker so when it comes to decisions, I’m very uncomfortable of what the result might be, because I would at all times like to make the right choice. I often think about the probabilities and possibilities of those outcomes and what I should do, because I do believe it helps when decisions are made personally. It definitely depends on what kind of decisions you are making and of how big importance and effect it has on your future. It also depends on the type of decision or something you make a period of time. I liked the utility function that can be helpful when making a decision; some decision can rank in order from best to worst, giving you a choice of certainty or a kind of lottery. Looking at such measures this take time and calculating can be time consuming and be a put off. We all make choices in one way or another some good and bad. But more often we try to make choices that will have some benefit to us and can see the result at the end of that decision that we have made.
The first lecture was interesting; I’m looking forward to what the next one has to offer. I thought it was going to be boring but after finishing I got the impression I am going to enjoy this module. Once this module is completed I will have broaden my knowledge of this topic and aspects of life I have not thought about.
Personally, when I make a judgment on a section I have to be very comfortable with whatever I’m doing before making those decisions of the uncertainty.
We were allocated to groups where we will be working together each week doing presentations and discussing set topics each week; which I am anticipating where each other different ideas can be share.
Weak 3
I am very indecisive and takes a lot of effort in making positive judgement due to the time it takes to generate good reasons, therefore this module will help me with my decisions and judgments from a psychological perspective.Since reading Judgment and Decision Taking by David Hardman, I have felt clearer and understand the information. This book was easy to understand getting to the point directly and concise. The first paper read for this module was Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way, this paper was a bit confusing at first. However during our discussion Dr. David Hardman explained the literature to the group and it became clearer. It was a very interesting piece for me because it states that human and animals makes inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge’s. This task was based on choices which must be made between two alternatives on a quantitative dimension. An example, when exiting the motorway or staying on it, who to treat first in an emergency room the 80 year old with an heart attack or the 16 years old who was in a car accident. Inference, concerning population demography such as city population of the past, present and future; Fast and Frugal was written in early day’s judgment based on pros and cons.
Herbert Simon judgement is based on one aspect, logical and probability for example train in inner city, ideas is sequentially searched, judgement is based on knowledge of surrounding. I have also the basic of the testing take the best algorithm which test how well individuals, who the take the best algorithm did at answering real world questions. Such as which city has more inhabitants (a) Heidelberg if (b) Bonn?, Each of the 500 simulated individuals in each of the 5x84 types was tested on exhaustive set of 3,403 city pairs. I think this paper is very interested when the concept is understood, although I had to read the article more than once. It was also useful because the pair described different models that can be used to explain how limited knowledge make fast inferences different from mental model of syllogism and deductive inference (Johnson-Laird 1983) focusing on the logical task of truth preservation and where knowledge is irrelevant.
Reading for week 4:
Decision making under Risk and uncertainty, the first reading was from David’s book. I read Decision analysis for management judgment by P. Goodwin and G. Wright. This topic has given an important definition in taking risk by the different theories and tough because it uses calculation to aid decision making. I’m not a fan of mathematics I find it challenging when doing calculations when it is vital to understand the model. However this area is a very interested one related to the real world. Personally I’m not a risk taker so when it comes to decisions, I’m very uncomfortable of what the result might be, because I would at all times like to make the right choice. I often think about the probabilities and possibilities of those outcomes and what I should do, because I do believe it helps when decisions are made personally. It definitely depends on what kind of decisions you are making and of how big importance and effect it has on your future. It also depends on the type of decision or something you make a period of time. I liked the utility function that can be helpful when making a decision; some decision can rank in order from best to worst, giving you a choice of certainty or a kind of lottery. Looking at such measures this take time and calculating can be time consuming and be a put off. We all make choices in one way or another some good and bad. But more often we try to make choices that will have some benefit to us and can see the result at the end of that decision that we have made.
Saturday, 10 October 2009
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