Monday, 23 November 2009
Friday, 6 November 2009
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Reflection writing on decision making
The first lecture was interesting; I’m looking forward to what the next one has to offer. I thought it was going to be boring but after finishing I got the impression I am going to enjoy this module. Once this module is completed I will have broaden my knowledge of this topic and aspects of life I have not thought about.
Personally, when I make a judgment on a section I have to be very comfortable with whatever I’m doing before making those decisions of the uncertainty.
We were allocated to groups where we will be working together each week doing presentations and discussing set topics each week; which I am anticipating where each other different ideas can be share.
Weak 3
I am very indecisive and takes a lot of effort in making positive judgement due to the time it takes to generate good reasons, therefore this module will help me with my decisions and judgments from a psychological perspective.Since reading Judgment and Decision Taking by David Hardman, I have felt clearer and understand the information. This book was easy to understand getting to the point directly and concise. The first paper read for this module was Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way, this paper was a bit confusing at first. However during our discussion Dr. David Hardman explained the literature to the group and it became clearer. It was a very interesting piece for me because it states that human and animals makes inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge’s. This task was based on choices which must be made between two alternatives on a quantitative dimension. An example, when exiting the motorway or staying on it, who to treat first in an emergency room the 80 year old with an heart attack or the 16 years old who was in a car accident. Inference, concerning population demography such as city population of the past, present and future; Fast and Frugal was written in early day’s judgment based on pros and cons.
Herbert Simon judgement is based on one aspect, logical and probability for example train in inner city, ideas is sequentially searched, judgement is based on knowledge of surrounding. I have also the basic of the testing take the best algorithm which test how well individuals, who the take the best algorithm did at answering real world questions. Such as which city has more inhabitants (a) Heidelberg if (b) Bonn?, Each of the 500 simulated individuals in each of the 5x84 types was tested on exhaustive set of 3,403 city pairs. I think this paper is very interested when the concept is understood, although I had to read the article more than once. It was also useful because the pair described different models that can be used to explain how limited knowledge make fast inferences different from mental model of syllogism and deductive inference (Johnson-Laird 1983) focusing on the logical task of truth preservation and where knowledge is irrelevant.
Reading for week 4:
Decision making under Risk and uncertainty, the first reading was from David’s book. I read Decision analysis for management judgment by P. Goodwin and G. Wright. This topic has given an important definition in taking risk by the different theories and tough because it uses calculation to aid decision making. I’m not a fan of mathematics I find it challenging when doing calculations when it is vital to understand the model. However this area is a very interested one related to the real world. Personally I’m not a risk taker so when it comes to decisions, I’m very uncomfortable of what the result might be, because I would at all times like to make the right choice. I often think about the probabilities and possibilities of those outcomes and what I should do, because I do believe it helps when decisions are made personally. It definitely depends on what kind of decisions you are making and of how big importance and effect it has on your future. It also depends on the type of decision or something you make a period of time. I liked the utility function that can be helpful when making a decision; some decision can rank in order from best to worst, giving you a choice of certainty or a kind of lottery. Looking at such measures this take time and calculating can be time consuming and be a put off. We all make choices in one way or another some good and bad. But more often we try to make choices that will have some benefit to us and can see the result at the end of that decision that we have made.
The first lecture was interesting; I’m looking forward to what the next one has to offer. I thought it was going to be boring but after finishing I got the impression I am going to enjoy this module. Once this module is completed I will have broaden my knowledge of this topic and aspects of life I have not thought about.
Personally, when I make a judgment on a section I have to be very comfortable with whatever I’m doing before making those decisions of the uncertainty.
We were allocated to groups where we will be working together each week doing presentations and discussing set topics each week; which I am anticipating where each other different ideas can be share.
Weak 3
I am very indecisive and takes a lot of effort in making positive judgement due to the time it takes to generate good reasons, therefore this module will help me with my decisions and judgments from a psychological perspective.Since reading Judgment and Decision Taking by David Hardman, I have felt clearer and understand the information. This book was easy to understand getting to the point directly and concise. The first paper read for this module was Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way, this paper was a bit confusing at first. However during our discussion Dr. David Hardman explained the literature to the group and it became clearer. It was a very interesting piece for me because it states that human and animals makes inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge’s. This task was based on choices which must be made between two alternatives on a quantitative dimension. An example, when exiting the motorway or staying on it, who to treat first in an emergency room the 80 year old with an heart attack or the 16 years old who was in a car accident. Inference, concerning population demography such as city population of the past, present and future; Fast and Frugal was written in early day’s judgment based on pros and cons.
Herbert Simon judgement is based on one aspect, logical and probability for example train in inner city, ideas is sequentially searched, judgement is based on knowledge of surrounding. I have also the basic of the testing take the best algorithm which test how well individuals, who the take the best algorithm did at answering real world questions. Such as which city has more inhabitants (a) Heidelberg if (b) Bonn?, Each of the 500 simulated individuals in each of the 5x84 types was tested on exhaustive set of 3,403 city pairs. I think this paper is very interested when the concept is understood, although I had to read the article more than once. It was also useful because the pair described different models that can be used to explain how limited knowledge make fast inferences different from mental model of syllogism and deductive inference (Johnson-Laird 1983) focusing on the logical task of truth preservation and where knowledge is irrelevant.
Reading for week 4:
Decision making under Risk and uncertainty, the first reading was from David’s book. I read Decision analysis for management judgment by P. Goodwin and G. Wright. This topic has given an important definition in taking risk by the different theories and tough because it uses calculation to aid decision making. I’m not a fan of mathematics I find it challenging when doing calculations when it is vital to understand the model. However this area is a very interested one related to the real world. Personally I’m not a risk taker so when it comes to decisions, I’m very uncomfortable of what the result might be, because I would at all times like to make the right choice. I often think about the probabilities and possibilities of those outcomes and what I should do, because I do believe it helps when decisions are made personally. It definitely depends on what kind of decisions you are making and of how big importance and effect it has on your future. It also depends on the type of decision or something you make a period of time. I liked the utility function that can be helpful when making a decision; some decision can rank in order from best to worst, giving you a choice of certainty or a kind of lottery. Looking at such measures this take time and calculating can be time consuming and be a put off. We all make choices in one way or another some good and bad. But more often we try to make choices that will have some benefit to us and can see the result at the end of that decision that we have made.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
